Assessing Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Urban Public Buildings Carbon Emissions in China: An Approach Based on LMDI Analysis

Urban public buildings carbon emissions exhibit an upward trend and have a large potential in carbon emission reduction. The analysis of spatiotemporal characteristics and driving factors for urban public buildings carbon emissions is essential in formulating effective policies for carbon reduction, meeting commitments to peak carbon emissions and achieving carbon neutrality. This study takes China's urban public buildings carbon emissions as the research object, employing methods such as spatial autocorrelation analyses, kernel density estimation analyses, and the LMDI decomposition methods to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and regional disparities in carbon emissions from 2006 to 2019. Furthermore, it quantifies the contributions of driving factors to the spatiotemporal changes in urban public buildings carbon emissions. The results show the following: (1) Urban public buildings carbon emissions among provinces are consistently increasing, indicating an overall upward trend. The spatial distribution highlights significant regional disparities. (2) The spatial characteristics of urban public buildings carbon emissions were basically stable. The eastern coastal regions demonstrate a high-high cluster, while the western regions exhibit a low-low cluster. The overall cluster evolution showed a decreasing trend from east to west. (3) Per capita urban public building area, economic density, urbanization rate, and population size serve as driving factors for carbon emissions from urban public buildings, while energy efficiency and energy consumption intensity act as inhibitory factors. The findings of this research can assist policymakers in getting a deeper comprehension of urban public buildings carbon emissions and providing a scientific basis to formulate appropriate carbon emission reduction policies.