Probabilistic human health risk assessment and Sobol sensitivity reveal the major health risk parameters of aluminum in drinking water in Shiraz, Iran

Overuse of aluminum salts (a.k.a., alum) in coagulation and flocculation processes in water treatment raises concerns about increased levels of aluminum (Al) in drinking water. In this study, we present a probabilistic human health risk assessment (HRA) for non-cancerogenic risks, with Sobol sensitivity analysis, to vet the concern of increased health risk from Al in drinking water in Shiraz, Iran, for children, adolescents, and adults. The results show that the concentration of Al in the drinking water in Shiraz varies significantly between winter and summer seasons and varies considerably spatially across the city irrespective of the season. However, all concentrations are below the guideline concentration. The HRA results show that the highest health risk is for children in summer, and the lowest is for adolescents and adults during winter, with generally higher health risks for younger age groups. However, Monte Carlo results for all age groups suggest no adverse health effects due to Al exposure. The sensitivity analysis shows that the sensitive parameters vary across age groups. For example, the Al concentration and ingestion rate pose the most risk for adolescent and adult groups, and children group, respectively. More importantly, the interaction of Al concentration with ingestion rate and body weight is the controlling parameters for evaluating HRA rather than Al concentration alone. We conclude that while the HRA of Al in Shiraz drinking water did not indicate significant health risk, regular monitoring and optimal operation of the coagulation and flocculation processes are essential.