Spatial effects of market integration on the industrial agglomeration of agricultural products: evidence from China

The spatial effects of agricultural market integration on industrial agglomeration are an important field of regional economic. This paper collected the data of agricultural market integration and industrial agglomeration in 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019, analyzed the spatial effects of the two by constructing a dynamic spatial Dubin model, and explored its long-term and short-term effects of the spatial effects. The results show the following: (1) the primary terms of agricultural market integration were negative and the secondary terms were positive. The impact of agricultural market integration on local industrial agglomeration had a "U-shaped" characteristic. Whether in the short-term or long-term, there was a significant direct effect of "suppression to promotion." (2) The agricultural market integration had a spatial spillover effect on industrial agglomeration in the neighboring areas. This effect had an "inverted U-shaped" characteristic. Whether in the short-term or long-term, there was a prominent spatial spillover effect of "promotion to suppression." (3) For direct effects, the short-term direct effects of agricultural market integration on industrial agglomeration were - 0.0452 and 0.0077, and the long-term direct effects were - 0.2430 and 0.0419. For spatial spillover effects, the short-term spatial spillover effects were 0.0983 and - 0.0179, and the long-term spatial spillover effects were 0.4554 and - 0.0827. The long-term effects were greater than the short-term effects. This paper provides empirical evidence for the effects of agricultural market integration on industrial agglomeration in different regions, and exploring the development of agricultural agglomeration in the long-term.