Seepage safety evaluation of high earth-rockfill dams considering spatial variability of hydraulic parameters via subset simulation

Seepage failure of high earth-rockfill dams have devastating consequences, and its safety analysis is of great importance in the design phase. However, the highest safety standards in high dams pose a challenge to the calculated efficiency of safety assessment. To address this problem, a random seepage safety assessment method which can consider the spatial variability of hydraulic parameters is proposed. Firstly, the spatial variability of the hydraulic parameters in the impervious materials is simulated using the covariance matrix decomposition under the framework of the non-intrusive finite element method. Then, according to the safety index of critical hydraulic gradient, the seepage stability formula is established to evaluate the safety state. Finally, considering that the highest safety standards in high dams make the probability of seepage hazard small (low failure probability event), it may require more than 10,000 deterministic calculations to complete the assessment process. Therefore, an efficient method based on subset simulation is proposed to optimize the computational efficiency. After the seepage safety evaluation of a 315 m high dam, the results show that the hydraulic con-ductivity of the core wall has the greatest influence on the seepage safety of the dam, and even under the in-fluence of strong parameter spatial variability, its seepage failure probability is lower than 10-3. Compared with Monte Carlo simulation, the proposed method requires only 1/11 of the computation time at the 10-3 failure level. In addition, the results of grey relational analysis show that the coefficient of variation and correlation distance have obvious effects on seepage safety, and the autocorrelation distance has a greater effect.