Acceleration of US Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability

被引:55
作者
Dangendorf, Soenke [1 ]
Hendricks, Noah [2 ]
Sun, Qiang [1 ]
Klinck, John [2 ]
Ezer, Tal [2 ]
Frederikse, Thomas [3 ]
Calafat, Francisco M. [4 ]
Wahl, Thomas [5 ]
Torrnqvist, Torbjorn E. [6 ]
机构
[1] Tulane Univ, Dept River Coastal Sci & Engn, 6823 St Charles Ave, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA
[2] Old Dominion Univ, Ctr Coastal Phys Oceanog, Dept Ocean & Earth Sci, 4111 Monarch Way, Norfolk, VA 23508 USA
[3] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA
[4] Natl Oceanog Ctr, 6 Brownlow St, Liverpool L3 5DA, Lancs, England
[5] Univ Cent Florida, Dept Civil Environm & Construct Engn, Orlando, FL 32816 USA
[6] Tulane Univ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, 6823 St Charles Ave, New Orleans, LA 70118 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
ATLANTIC COAST; EAST-COAST; LATE HOLOCENE; REANALYSIS; PROJECTIONS; IMPACT; BUDGET; WIND; GIA;
D O I
10.1038/s41467-023-37649-9
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr(-1) since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the simulated forced response is removed from observations, the residuals are neither historically unprecedented nor inconsistent with internal variability in simulations. A large fraction of the residuals is consistent with wind driven Rossby waves in the tropical North Atlantic. This indicates that this ongoing acceleration represents the compounding effects of external forcing and internal climate variability. Sea level rise along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf Coast has accelerated since 2010 due to changes in steric expansion and the ocean's circulation. The acceleration represents the compounding effects of external forcing and natural climate variability.
引用
收藏
页数:11
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