The Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS) v1.0: a platform for characterizing parametric and structural uncertainty in future global, relative, and extreme sea-level change

被引：40

作者：

Kopp, Robert E. ^{[1
,2
]}

Garner, Gregory G. ^{[1
,2
,16
]}

Hermans, Tim H. J. ^{[3
,4
]}

Jha, Shantenu ^{[2
,5
,6
]}

Kumar, Praveen ^{[1
,2
]}

Reedy, Alexander ^{[1
,2
,5
]}

Slangen, Aimee B. A. ^{[3
]}

Turilli, Matteo ^{[5
,6
]}

Edwards, Tamsin L. ^{[7
]}

Gregory, Jonathan M. ^{[8
,9
]}

Koubbe, George ^{[5
]}

Levermann, Anders ^{[10
,11
]}

Merzky, Andre ^{[5
]}

Nowicki, Sophie ^{[12
]}

Palmer, Matthew D. ^{[8
,13
]}

Smith, Chris ^{[14
,15
]}

机构：

[1] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Piscataway, NJ 08854 USA

[2] Rutgers State Univ, Rutgers Climate & Energy Inst, New Brunswick, NJ 08854 USA

[3] NIOZ Royal Netherlands Inst Sea Res, Dept Estuarine & Delta Syst, Yerseke, Netherlands

[4] Univ Utrecht, Inst Marine & Atmospher Res Utrecht IMAU, Utrecht, Netherlands

[5] Rutgers State Univ, Dept Elect & Comp Engn, Piscataway, NJ USA

[6] Brookhaven Natl Lab, Computat Sci Initiat, Upton, NY USA

[7] Kings Coll London, Dept Geog, London, England

[8] Hadley Ctr, Met Off, Exeter, England

[9] Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading, England

[10] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany

[11] Potsdam Univ, Phys Inst, Potsdam, Germany

[12] Univ Buffalo, Dept Geol, Buffalo, NY USA

[13] Univ Bristol, Sch Earth Sci, Bristol, England

[14] Univ Leeds, Priestley Int Ctr Climate, Leeds, England

[15] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal IIASA, Energy Climate & Environm Program, Laxenburg, Austria

[16] Gro Intelligence, New York, NY USA

来源：

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT | 2023年 / 16卷 / 24期

基金：

美国国家航空航天局; 英国自然环境研究理事会; 欧盟地平线“2020”; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

SURFACE MASS-BALANCE; ANTARCTIC ICE-SHEET; IMPULSE-RESPONSE; MODEL; RISE; CLIMATE; PROJECTIONS; GREENLAND; SCENARIOS; AMBIGUITY;

D O I：

10.5194/gmd-16-7461-2023

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Future sea-level rise projections are characterized by both quantifiable uncertainty and unquantifiable structural uncertainty. Thorough scientific assessment of sea-level rise projections requires analysis of both dimensions of uncertainty. Probabilistic sea-level rise projections evaluate the quantifiable dimension of uncertainty; comparison of alternative probabilistic methods provides an indication of structural uncertainty. Here we describe the Framework for Assessing Changes To Sea-level (FACTS), a modular platform for characterizing different probability distributions for the drivers of sea-level change and their consequences for global mean, regional, and extreme sea-level change. We demonstrate its application by generating seven alternative probability distributions under multiple emissions scenarios for both future global mean sea-level change and future relative and extreme sea-level change at New York City. These distributions, closely aligned with those presented in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report, emphasize the role of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets as drivers of structural uncertainty in sea-level change projections.

引用

页码：7461 / 7489

页数：29

共 106 条

[41]

Kopp Robert E, 2021, Zenodo, DOI 10.5281/ZENODO.6029807

[42] Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea-Level Rise [J].

Kopp, Robert E. ;

Gilmore, Elisabeth A. ;

Little, Christopher M. ;

Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge ;

Ramenzoni, Victoria C. ;

Sweet, William V. .

EARTHS FUTURE, 2019, 7 (12) :1235-1269

[43] Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections [J].

Kopp, Robert E. ;

DeConto, Robert M. ;

Bader, Daniel A. ;

Hay, Carling C. ;

Horton, Radley M. ;

Kulp, Scott ;

Oppenheimer, Michael ;

Pollard, David ;

Strauss, Benjamin H. .

EARTHS FUTURE, 2017, 5 (12) :1217-1233

[44] Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites [J].

Kopp, Robert E. ;

Horton, Radle M. ;

Little, Christopher M. ;

Mitrovica, Jerry X. ;

Oppenheimer, Michael ;

Rasmussen, D. J. ;

Strauss, Benjamin H. ;

Tebaldi, Claudia .

EARTHS FUTURE, 2014, 2 (08) :383-406

[45] The impact of Greenland melt on local sea levels: a partially coupled analysis of dynamic and static equilibrium effects in idealized water-hosing experiments A letter [J].

Kopp, Robert E. ;

Mitrovica, Jerry X. ;

Griffies, Stephen M. ;

Yin, Jianjun ;

Hay, Carling C. ;

Stouffer, Ronald J. .

CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2010, 103 (3-4) :619-625

[46] Communicating future sea-level rise uncertainty and ambiguity to assessment users [J].

Kopp, Robert E. E. ;

Oppenheimer, Michael ;

O'Reilly, Jessica L. L. ;

Drijfhout, Sybren S. S. ;

Edwards, Tamsin L. L. ;

Fox-Kemper, Baylor ;

Garner, Gregory G. G. ;

Golledge, Nicholas R. R. ;

Hermans, Tim H. J. ;

Hewitt, Helene T. T. ;

Horton, Benjamin P. P. ;

Krinner, Gerhard ;

Notz, Dirk ;

Nowicki, Sophie ;

Palmer, Matthew D. D. ;

Slangen, Aimee B. A. ;

Xiao, Cunde .

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 2023, 13 (07) :648-660

[47] Utilizing belief functions for the estimation of future climate change [J].

Kriegler, E ;

Held, H .

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPROXIMATE REASONING, 2005, 39 (2-3) :185-209

[48]

Kroon D., 2008, High-End Projection for Local Sea Level Rise along the Dutch Coast in 2100 and 2200, Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands, P15

[49] Correlations Between Sea-Level Components Are Driven by Regional Climate Change [J].

Lambert, Erwin ;

Le Bars, Dewi ;

Goelzer, Heiko ;

van de Wal, Roderik S. W. .

EARTHS FUTURE, 2021, 9 (02)

[50] ISSM-SLPS: geodetically compliant Sea-Level Projection System for the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model v4.17 [J].

Larour, Eric ;

Caron, Lambert ;

Morlighem, Mathieu ;

Adhikari, Surendra ;

Frederikse, Thomas ;

Schlegel, Nicole-Jeanne ;

Ivins, Erik ;

Hamlington, Benjamin ;

Kopp, Robert ;

Nowicki, Sophie .

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT, 2020, 13 (10) :4925-4941

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 →