Understanding the role of mask-wearing during COVID-19 on the island of Ireland

被引:4
作者
Fitz-Simon, Nicola [1 ,2 ]
Ferguson, John [2 ]
Alvarez-Iglesias, Alberto [2 ]
Sofonea, Mircea T. [3 ]
Kamiya, Tsukushi [2 ,4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Galway, Sch Math & Stat Sci, Galway, Ireland
[2] Univ Galway, HRB Clin Res Facil, Galway, Ireland
[3] Univ Montpellier, MIVEGEC, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France
[4] Univ PSL, Ctr Interdisciplinary Res Biol CIRB, Coll France, CNRS,INSERM, Paris, France
基金
爱尔兰科学基金会;
关键词
COVID-19; mask-wearing; hospitalizations; counterfactuals; Ireland; NONPHARMACEUTICAL INTERVENTIONS; MOBILITY;
D O I
10.1098/rsos.221540
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Non-pharmaceutical interventions have played a key role in managing the COVID-19 pandemic, but it is challenging to estimate their impacts on disease spread and outcomes. On the island of Ireland, population mobility restrictions were imposed during the first wave, but mask-wearing was not mandated until about six months into the pandemic. We use data on mask-wearing, mobility, and season, over the first year of the pandemic to predict independently the weekly infectious contact estimated by an epidemiological model. Using our models, we make counterfactual predictions of infectious contact, and ensuing hospitalizations, under a hypothetical intervention where 90% of the population wore masks from the beginning of community spread until the dates of the mask mandates. Over periods including the first wave of the pandemic, there were 1601 hospitalizations with COVID-19 in Northern Ireland and 1521 in the Republic of Ireland. Under the counterfactual mask-wearing scenario, we estimate 512 (95% CI 400, 730) and 344 (95% CI 266, 526) hospitalizations in the respective jurisdictions during the same periods. This could be partly due to other factors that were also changing over time.
引用
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页数:13
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