Transitioning to battery electric vehicles in Japan: Impact of promotion policy, battery performance and carbon neutrality on greenhouse gas emissions reduction

This paper examines the life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction and associated marginal costs (MC) in Japan when the government enhances the transition to battery electric passenger vehicles (BEVs) by implementing a rapid investment regime for charging stations and fossil-fueled vehicle bans. Important factors affecting BEV emissions are battery performance, battery production technology, electricity generation mix and battery minimum state of charge (SOCmin). We find that in addition to a rapid investment regime, a fossil-fueled vehicles ban policy is necessary to significantly increase the uptake of BEVs and achieves the deepest reduction in life cycle GHG emissions. Under this policy, with carbon neutral electricity by 2050 and a low SOCmin charging regime, life-cycle GHG emissions are reduced by 48% and the MC by 53% in 2060. A carbon neutral light transport fleet in 2050 will require carbon capture and storage to offset 24 million tonnes-CO2 equivalent of emissions even if electricity is carbon neutral by 2050 and users adhere to a low SOCmin charging regime.