Predicting the carbon emission reduction potential of shared electric bicycle travel

Shared electric bicycle (SEB) has rapidly gained prominence as a mode of shared mobility in China. This study aims to explore the impact of SEB travel on carbon emissions reduction in urban transportation systems. Employing a system dynamics approach, a predictive model is developed with five subsystems: socio-economic subsystem, SEB travel subsystem, traditional travel subsystem, traffic congestion subsystem, and carbon emissions subsystem. Taking Changsha City as a case study, the carbon reduction potential of SEB is evaluated by analyzing different travel scenarios. The results show that urban transportation carbon emissions can be reduced by about 3.3% under the SEB travel alternative scenario. Compared to infrastructure development or private car restriction scenarios, the SEB alternative is more viable and sustainable. SEB exhibits advantages over other public transportation in alleviating urban transportation burdens and reducing emissions. Sensitivity analysis emphasizes the key role of increasing distance by SEB travel in enhancing carbon reduction.