A time-dependent survival analysis for early prognosis of chronic wounds by monitoring wound alkalinity

The objective is to determine whether monitoring wound alkalinity between visits may help prognosticate chronic wound healing. The alkalinity of 167 wounds during the first 3 visits was assessed using disposable DETEC (R) pH. Wounds grouped by frequency of alkaline results were compared by % wound size reduction during each visit and 120-day healing probability. The Cox proportional hazards model for time-dependent variables was used to generate non-healing probability curves, where variables are binary (alkaline/non-alkaline, infection/no infection), categorical (wound type), and continuous (wound area); the response is time to complete wound healing; and the event of interest is complete wound healing in 120 days. Results show that wounds with frequent alkaline results have significantly smaller % size reduction per visit. Logistic regression shows an increase in 120-day healing probability with fewer alkaline results. Survival analysis shows that the instantaneous healing rate of non-alkaline or non-alkaline transitioning wounds is 1.785, 2.925, and 5.908 times that of alkaline or alkaline-transitioning wounds for 1, 2, and 3 alkalinity measurements, respectively. Furthermore, the concordance statistic of each survival model shows that goodness of fit increases with more alkalinity measurements. Overall, frequent wound alkalinity assessments may serve as a novel way to prognosticate wound healing outcomes.