Persistent racial disproportionality in investigated and substantiated child maltreatment reports: Trend analysis before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2019-2020)

Early studies revealed COVID-19MODIFIER LETTER PRIMEs outbreak led to a drastic decline in child maltreatment reports and investigations within child welfare services. However, limited research has documented whether these declines continued throughout the pandemic. Furthermore, our knowledge is limited around whether COVID-19 influenced existing racial disproportionalities given the shock to the child welfare system. This study addresses those gaps by drawing from county-level child welfare data from 2019 to 2020 to examine 1) changes in reporting sources before and during COVID-19, 2) trends in investigated and substantiated reports of child maltreatment, and 3) disproportionality between racial groups. We find a clear shift in reporting sources: while school was one major reporting system before COVID-19, most reports were received from medical personnel during early COVID-19. Additionally, while the monthly count of youth on investigated and substantiated reports plummeted in early COVID-19 (March-April 2020), they mostly returned to pre-pandemic level after May 2020, particularly for investigated reports. Despite these changes, we find little change in racial disproportionality: Black youth were overrepresented at both stages of investigation and substantiation regardless of COVID-19. This suggests disproportionality was consistent across reporting systems, and school-based reporting may not be the sole contributor to disproportionality more or less than other reporting sources.