Can China reach the win-win goals for food security and pollution control from the perspective of nitrogen flow analysis?

被引:3
作者
Pang, Aiping [1 ,2 ]
Li, Chunhui [2 ]
Liu, Lirong [3 ]
机构
[1] Nanjing Acad Adm, Dept Publ Management, Nanjing 210046, Peoples R China
[2] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Environm, Key Lab Water & Sediment Sci, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
[3] Univ Surrey, Ctr Environm & Sustainabil, Guildford GU2 7XH, England
关键词
N flow; Nonpoint source pollution; Material flow analysis; Spatial analysis; Spatiotemporal pattern evolution; Food security; Agro-environmental risk; AGRICULTURE;
D O I
10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.138757
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Producing enough food to simultaneously address food shortage and agro-environmental pollution problems attracts attention globally. To quantify the risks of nutrition crisis to food security and the agro-environment under current agricultural policies in China, this study evaluates and predict the spatiotemporal patterns of nitrogen (N) flows during 1949-2050 through material flow analysis (MFA) and spatial analysis methods. The results show that (1) the crop harvest (including grains, fruits and vegetables) in China increased by a factor of 8.12 from 1949 to 2019, accompanied by a large amount of N loss to the environment. Compared to 1949, N runoff increased 1.23 times in 1979 and 3.43 times in 1999 after which time agricultural pollution control policy achieved initial results, and the crop harvest increased steadily. (2) At the national average level, crop production will increase by 58.60% in 2050, which is higher than the food security threshold while N loss to the envi-ronment will be lower than the agro-environmental risk threshold. Under the current agricultural policy, the win-win goals of crop production increase and pollution control can be realized in China. (3) China has obvious temporal and spatial differences in N flows, for which four regions has been divided. Region II, mainly located in Yangtze River Economic Belt, is a high-risk area for N loss. By 2050, environmental pollution can be controlled under the current agricultural policies. However, crop production will only increase by 10% compared with its historical high value, lower than food security threshold. It is necessary to implement more targeted management of high-risk areas by adopting methods such as fallowing or construction of pollution buffer zones while improving N fertilizer use efficiency. For region III, the impact of N loss on the environment has always been at a low level, so there is still great room for increasing future crop production in this region. On average, China will be able to achieve green and sustainable development for agriculture nationally, but there are remaining food security risks in high N loss areas. More targeted N management strategies should be applied to achieve better goals in the future.
引用
收藏
页数:10
相关论文
共 31 条
  • [1] Reshaping the European agro-food system and closing its nitrogen cycle: The potential of combining dietary change, agroecology, and circularity
    Billen, Gilles
    Aguilera, Eduardo
    Einarsson, Rasmus
    Garnier, Josette
    Gingrich, Simone
    Grizzetti, Bruna
    Lassaletta, Luis
    Le Noe, Julia
    Sanz-Cobena, Alberto
    [J]. ONE EARTH, 2021, 4 (06): : 839 - 850
  • [2] Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution
    Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
    Popp, Alexander
    Lotze-Campen, Hermann
    Dietrich, Jan Philipp
    Rolinski, Susanne
    Weindl, Isabelle
    Schmitz, Christoph
    Mueller, Christoph
    Bonsch, Markus
    Humpenoeder, Florian
    Biewald, Anne
    Stevanovic, Miodrag
    [J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2014, 5
  • [3] A Spectral Approach to Uncertainty Quantification in Water Distribution Networks
    Braun, Mathias
    Piller, Olivier
    Iollo, Angelo
    Mortazavi, Iraj
    [J]. JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND MANAGEMENT, 2020, 146 (03)
  • [4] Material flow analysis of the nitrogen loading to surface water of Miyun reservoir watershed under uncertainty
    Cai, Yanpeng
    Xu, Wen
    Ji, Daobin
    Yang, Zhifeng
    Fu, Qiang
    [J]. JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION, 2022, 353
  • [5] Driving forces of nitrogen use efficiency in Chinese croplands on county scale
    Chen, Binhui
    Ren, Chenchen
    Wang, Chen
    Duan, Jiakun
    Reis, Stefan
    Gu, Baojing
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION, 2023, 316
  • [6] Producing more grain with lower environmental costs
    Chen, Xinping
    Cui, Zhenling
    Fan, Mingsheng
    Vitousek, Peter
    Zhao, Ming
    Ma, Wenqi
    Wang, Zhenlin
    Zhang, Weijian
    Yan, Xiaoyuan
    Yang, Jianchang
    Deng, Xiping
    Gao, Qiang
    Zhang, Qiang
    Guo, Shiwei
    Ren, Jun
    Li, Shiqing
    Ye, Youliang
    Wang, Zhaohui
    Huang, Jianliang
    Tang, Qiyuan
    Sun, Yixiang
    Peng, Xianlong
    Zhang, Jiwang
    He, Mingrong
    Zhu, Yunji
    Xue, Jiquan
    Wang, Guiliang
    Wu, Liang
    An, Ning
    Wu, Liangquan
    Ma, Lin
    Zhang, Weifeng
    Zhang, Fusuo
    [J]. NATURE, 2014, 514 (7523) : 486 - +
  • [7] Setting ambitious goals for agriculture to meet environmental targets
    Erisman, Jan Willem
    [J]. ONE EARTH, 2021, 4 (01): : 15 - 18
  • [8] Gu B.J., 2011, Nitrogen Cycle of Coupled Human and Natural Systema Case Study of China
  • [9] Integrated reactive nitrogen budgets and future trends in China
    Gu, Baojing
    Ju, Xiaotang
    Chang, Jie
    Ge, Ying
    Vitousek, Peter M.
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, 2015, 112 (28) : 8792 - 8797
  • [10] Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions in 1961-2017
    Hong, Chaopeng
    Burney, Jennifer A.
    Pongratz, Julia
    Nabel, Julia E. M. S.
    Mueller, Nathaniel D.
    Jackson, Robert B.
    Davis, Steven J.
    [J]. NATURE, 2021, 589 (7843) : 554 - +