Using decision tree analysis to identify population groups at risk of subjective unmet need for assistance with activities of daily living

Background Identifying predictors of subjective unmet need for assistance with activities of daily living (ADL) is necessary to allocate resources in social care effectively to the most vulnerable populations. In this study, we aimed at identifying population groups at risk of subjective unmet need for assistance with ADL and instrumental ADL (IADL) taking complex interaction patterns between multiple predictors into account. Methods We included participants aged 55 or older from the cross-sectional German Health Update Study (GEDA 2019/2020-EHIS). Subjective unmet need for assistance was defined as needing any help or more help with ADL (analysis 1) and IADL (analysis 2). Analysis 1 was restricted to participants indicating at least one limitation in ADL (N = 1,957). Similarly, analysis 2 was restricted to participants indicating at least one limitation in IADL (N = 3,801). Conditional inference trees with a Bonferroni-corrected type 1 error rate were used to build classification models of subjective unmet need for assistance with ADL and IADL, respectively. A total of 36 variables representing socio-demographics and impairments of body function were used as covariates for both analyses. In addition, the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) was calculated for each decision tree. Results Depressive symptoms according to the PHQ-8 was the most important predictor of subjective unmet need for assistance with ADL. Further classifiers that were selected from the 36 independent variables were gender identity, employment status, severity of pain, marital status, and educational level according to ISCED-11. The AUC of this decision tree was 0.66. Similarly, depressive symptoms was the most important predictor of subjective unmet need for assistance with IADL. In this analysis, further classifiers were severity of pain, social support according to the Oslo-3 scale, self-reported prevalent asthma, and gender identity (AUC = 0.63). Conclusions Reporting depressive symptoms was the most important predictor of subjective unmet need for assistance among participants with limitations in ADL or IADL. Our findings do not allow conclusions on causal relationships. Predictive performance of the decision trees should be further investigated before conclusions for practice can be drawn.