Crime within a Bandwidth: Testing "the Law of Crime Concentration at Place" in Brussels

This study tests the law of crime concentration at place in Brussels Capital Region (approx. 1.2 million inhabitants) and examines the spatial stability of crime concentrations by applying Andresen's Spatial Point Pattern Test. Besides testing the law of crime concentration city-wide, this study also tests the law of crime concentration in the context of Brussels' six police departments and 19 municipalities. Police-registered crime data (n = 228,606 incidents) for the period 2007-2016 were used, which were geocoded at the spatial micro-level of grid cells (200 by 200 m). The results indicate that residential burglary is less concentrated in Brussels, although the concentrations of aggressive theft and battery are in line with previous tests of the law of crime concentration in Europe and the United States. Nevertheless, the results also indicate that crime concentrations vary significantly across Brussels' police departments and municipalities, which seem to be higher in larger municipalities and police departments. In addition, the spatial patterns of residential burglary, aggressive theft and battery were not spatially stable in Brussels between 2007 and 2016. This study indicates that considerable attention should be payed to tailoring place-based policing approaches to the characteristics of each crime type, including the spatial concentration and the spatial stability of crime. More research is needed into the underlying factors of low or high crime concentrations and the mechanisms of spatial (in)stability at the spatial micro-level.