Deep learning-based outcome prediction using PET/CT and automatically predicted probability maps of primary tumor in patients with oropharyngeal cancer

Background and Objective: Recently, deep learning (DL) algorithms showed to be promising in predicting out-comes such as distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) and overall survival (OS) using pre-treatment imaging in head and neck cancer. Gross Tumor Volume of the primary tumor (GTVp) segmentation is used as an additional channel in the input to DL algorithms to improve model performance. However, the binary segmentation mask of the GTVp directs the focus of the network to the defined tumor region only and uniformly. DL models trained for tumor segmentation have also been used to generate predicted tumor probability maps (TPM) where each pixel value corresponds to the degree of certainty of that pixel to be classified as tumor. The aim of this study was to explore the effect of using TPM as an extra input channel of CT-and PET-based DL prediction models for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) patients in terms of local control (LC), regional control (RC), DMFS and OS. Methods: We included 399 OPC patients from our institute that were treated with definitive (chemo)radiation. For each patient, CT and PET scans and GTVp contours, used for radiotherapy treatment planning, were collected. We first trained a previously developed 2.5D DL framework for tumor probability prediction by 5-fold cross validation using 131 patients. Then, a 3D ResNet18 was trained for outcome prediction using the 3D TPM as one of the possible inputs. The endpoints were LC, RC, DMFS, and OS. We performed 3-fold cross validation on 168 patients for each endpoint using different combinations of image modalities as input. The final prediction in the test set (100) was obtained by averaging the predictions of the 3-fold models. The C-index was used to evaluate the discriminative performance of the models.Results: The models trained replacing the GTVp contours with the TPM achieved the highest C-indexes for LC (0.74) and RC (0.60) prediction. For OS, using the TPM or the GTVp as additional image modality resulted in comparable C-indexes (0.72 and 0.74).Conclusions: Adding predicted TPMs instead of GTVp contours as an additional input channel for DL-based outcome prediction models improved model performance for LC and RC.