Extremely Poor Post-discharge Prognosis in Aspiration Pneumonia and Its Prognostic Factors: A Retrospective Cohort Study

There is little evidence regarding the long-term prognosis of patients with aspiration pneumonia. This study aimed to investigate post-discharge survival time and prognostic factors in older patients hospitalized for aspiration pneumonia. This retrospective cohort study included patients aged >= 65 years hospitalized for aspiration pneumonia and discharged alive from a tertiary care hospital in Japan between April 2009 and September 2014. Candidate prognostic factors were patient's age, sex, body mass index (BMI), performance status, chronic conditions, CURB-65 score, serum albumin level, hematocrit concentration, nutritional pathway at discharge, and discharge location. Kaplan-Meier curves were determined and multivariable survival analysis using Cox regression model was performed to analyze the effect of each factor on mortality. In total, 209 patients were included in this study. The median age was 85 years, 58% of the patients were males, 33% had a performance status of 4 and 34% were discharged home. Among the patients, 65% received oral intake, 23% received tube feeding, and 21% received parenteral nutrition at discharge. During the follow-up period, 77% of the patients died, and the median post-discharge survival time was 369 days. Besides male sex and low BMI, tube feeding (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.11-2.59) and parenteral nutrition (aHR = 4.42, 95% CI 2.57-7.60) were strongly associated with mortality. Long-term prognosis of patients hospitalized for aspiration pneumonia was extremely poor. The nutritional pathway at discharge was a major prognostic factor. These results may be useful for future care and research.