The increased summer monsoon rainfall in Northwest India: Coupling with the Northwestern Arabian Sea warming and modulated by the Silk Road Pattern since 2000

This study investigates changes in rainfall patterns over Northwest India (NWI) and the warming of the Northwestern Arabian Sea (NWAS) since 2000. These changes are attributed to the Silk Road Pattern (SRP) phase change in the late 1990s. The SRP positive phase triggers geostrophic deformation over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) by inducing an anomalous circulation pattern along the westerly jet, at 200 hPa. This deformation along the westerly Jet leads to Jet streaks and thermally indirect ageostrophic circulation over TP. In addition, the intensified heating over the TP led to a westward shift of the South Asian High (SAH). Associated with this, the interaction of positive temperature advection and northward ageostrophic wind (Jet entrance) over south-central Asia generates a southward component of ageostrophic wind (Jet Exit), causing upper-level convergence at southeast TP, excites the sinking cold air thereby strengthen the surface pressure below, over TP. This amplifies the anomalous anticyclone effect over there resulting in strong easterly wind anomalies along the monsoon trough at 850 hPa, disrupting the monsoon circulation. These anomalies, combined with a poleward shifting moisture-laden Low-Level Jet (LLJ), contribute to the warming of the NWAS and increased rainfall over NWI. The NWAS has shown significant summer warming over the past two decades. The poleward shift of the LLJ and SRPinduced circulation changes also impact the ocean dynamics. Given the occurrence of severe floods in this region of the Indian subcontinent, these findings have broader implications for predicting and projecting monsoon variability and extremes.