Machine learning model for circulating tumor DNA detection in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients with lung cancer

Background: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have a high risk of developing lung cancer. Due to the high rates of complications from invasive diagnostic procedures in this population, detecting circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) as a non-invasive method might be useful. However, clinical characteristics that are predictive of ctDNA mutation detection remain incompletely understood. This study aimed to investigate factors associated with ctDNA detection in COPD patients with lung cancer. Methods: Herein, 177 patients with COPD and lung cancer were prospectively recruited. Plasma ctDNA was genotyped using targeted deep sequencing. Comprehensive clinical variables were collected, including the emphysema index (EI), using chest computed tomography. Machine learning models were constructed to predict ctDNA detection. Results: At least one ctDNA mutation was detected in 54 (30.5%) patients. After adjustment for potential confounders, tumor stage, C -reactive protein (CRP) level, and milder emphysema were independently associated with ctDNA detection. An increase of 1% in the EI was associated with a 7% decrease in the odds of ctDNA detection (adjusted odds ratio =0.933; 95% confidence interval: 0.857-0.999; P=0.047). Machine learning models composed of multiple clinical factors predicted individuals with ctDNA mutations at high performance (AUC =0.774). Conclusions: ctDNA mutations were likely to be observed in COPD patients with lung cancer who had an advanced clinical stage, high CRP level, or milder emphysema. This was validated in machine learning models with high accuracy. Further prospective studies are required to validate the clinical utility of our findings.