Serum-based biomarkers associated with lung cancer risk and cause-specific mortality in the German randomized Lung Cancer Screening Intervention (LUSI) trial

Background: Lung cancer (LC) screening can be optimized using individuals' estimated risks of having a detectable lung tumor, as well as of mortality risk by competing causes, to guide decisions on screening eligibility, ideal screening intervals and stopping ages. Besides age, sex and smoking history, blood-based biomarkers may be used to improve the assessment of LC risk and risk of mortality by competing causes.Methods: In the German randomized Lung Screening Intervention Trial (LUSI), we measured growth/ differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15), interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic protein (NT-proBNP), in blood serum samples collected at start of the trial. Participants in the computed tomography (CT)-screening arm also had a pulmonary function test. Regression models were used to examine these markers as predictors for impaired lung function, LC risk and mortality due to LC or other causes, independently of age, sex and smoking history.Results: Our models showed increases in LC risk among participants with elevated serum levels of GDF -15 [odds ratio (OR)Q4-Q1 =2.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49-4.26], IL-6 [ORQ4-Q1 =2.36 (1.43-4.00)] and CRP [ORQ4-Q1 =1.81 (1.08-2.75)]. Likewise, proportional hazards models showed increased risks for LC-related mortality, hazard ratio (HR)Q4-Q1 of 4.63 (95% CI: 2.13-10.07) for GDF-15, 3.56 (1.72-7.37) for IL-6 and 2.34 (1.24-4.39) for CRP. All four markers were associated with increased risk of mortality by causes other than LC, with strongest associations for GDF-15 [HRQ4-Q1 =3.04 (2.09-4.43)] and IL-6 [HRQ4-Q1 =2.98 (2.08-4.28)]. Significant associations were also observed between IL-6, CRP, GDF-15 and impaired pulmonary function [chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm)]. Multi-marker models identified GDF-15 and IL-6 as joint risk predictors for risk of LC diagnosis, without further discrimination by CRP or NT-proBNP. A model based on age, sex, smoking-related variables, GFD-15 and IL-6 provided moderately strong discrimination for prediction of LC diagnoses within 9 years after blood sampling [area under the curve (AUC) =74.3% (57.3-90.2%)], compared to 67.0% (49.3-84.8%) for a model without biomarkers. For mortality by competing causes, a model including biomarkers resulted in an AUC of 76.2% (66.6-85.3%)], compared to 70.0% (60.9-77.9%) a model including age, sex and smoking variables.Conclusions: Serum GDF-15 and IL-6 may be useful indicators for estimating risks for LC and competing mortality among long-term smokers participating in LC screening, to optimize LC screening strategies.