Greenhouse gas emissions mitigation potential of municipal solid waste management: A case study of 13 prefecture-level cities in Jiangsu Province, China

Municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment is one of the main anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs). To mitigate the GHG emissions of the MSW sector, it is crucial to describe their emissions evolutions and mechanisms and propose localized mitigation measures on that basis. The logarithmic mean Divisia index model is used to identify the driving forces of MSW-related GHG emissions and explore the mitigation potential. Jiangsu, a typical province in China with 13 prefecture-level cities, is selected as the case study. The results showed that GHG emissions from Jiangsu's MSW treatment has increased by nearly 2.5 Mt in the last 20 years, as incineration replaces landfills. Economic development was the dominant positive driving force, and MSW generation intensity was the dominant negative driving force. Scenario analysis revealed that the carbon peak of MSW management could appear if MSW source separation and recycling (SSR) were implemented, reducing GHG accumulation emissions by approximately 0.3-0.4 Gt during 2022-2060. Referencing the SSR of the Shanghai pattern will generate the greatest mitigation potential of GHG emissions among the different scenario designs. Finally, policy recommendations for priority cities, consideration of population and economic factors, optimization of MSW treatment structures and improvements to SSR are proposed, which could help local- and national-level decision makers in China and other countries design policy guides to promote carbon neutrality, while simultaneously linking current research areas to waste management practices as well as promoting practices in environment and sustainability.