Rabies transmission in the Arctic: An agent-based model reveals the effects of broad-scale movement strategies on contact risk between Arctic foxes

被引：2

作者：

Tardy, Olivia ^{[1
,5
]}

Lenglos, Christophe ^{[4
]}

Lai, Sandra ^{[2
,3
]}

Berteaux, Dominique ^{[2
,3
]}

Leighton, Patrick A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Montreal, Fac Vet Med, Res Grp Epidemiol Zoonoses & Publ Hlth, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint Hyacinthe, PQ J2S 2M2, Canada

[2] Univ Quebec Rimouski, Canada Res Chair Northern Biodivers, Ctr Northern Studies, 300 Allee Ursulines, Rimouski, PQ G5L 3A1, Canada

[3] Univ Quebec Rimouski, Quebec Ctr Biodivers Sci, 300Aallee Ursulines, Rimouski, PQ G5L 3A1, Canada

[4] McGill Univ, 3801 Rue Univ, Montreal, PQ H3A 2B4, Canada

[5] Publ Hlth Agcy Canada, Publ Hlth Risk Sci Div, Natl Microbiol Lab, 3200 Rue Sicotte, Saint Hyacinthe, PQ J2S 2M2, Canada

来源：

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING | 2023年 / 476卷

基金：

加拿大自然科学与工程研究理事会;

关键词：

Arctic rabies; Vulpes lagopus; Spatially explicit agent-based model; Animal movement; Contact rate; Hidden Markov model; RESOURCE SELECTION FUNCTIONS; HIDDEN MARKOV-MODELS; FLUCTUATING RESOURCES; ALOPEX-LAGOPUS; DISPERSAL; DYNAMICS; DENSITY; RED; VACCINATION; POPULATION;

D O I：

10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110207

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

Arctic rabies is an ongoing threat to human populations and domestic animals inpolar regions, where Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus) are the main reservoir hosts. Human-driven changes in resource availability are shifting the distribution of Arctic foxes and these changes may affect the risk of rabies transmission and spread. Our un-derstanding of the effects of broad-scale movement strategies in Arctic foxes and spatial distribution of resources on contact patterns among Arctic foxes, and their consequences on the dynamics of rabies epidemiology remains limited, in part, due to the difficulty of obtaining contact data from such remote and expansive regions. In this perspective, we built a spatially explicit agent-based model coupled with hidden Markov models to explore how Arctic fox movement behavior, combined with Arctic fox population density, resource availability and rabies transmission dynamics, affects the risk of infectious contact between Arctic foxes across heterogeneous land-scapes. The model was parameterized using a combination of unique field data collected in the Canadian High Arctic and published studies from other Arctic regions. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the effects of multiple model input parameters on contact rates among Arctic foxes. Our results showed that cumulative contact rates per fox were driven by predictors related to rabies transmission dynamics and fox carrying capacity, while unique contact rates per fox and unique infectious contact rates per rabid fox were best predicted by parameters associated with rabies transmission dynamics, fox movement behavior, and fox carrying capacity. Ultimately, our study provides new insights into the ecological drivers of rabies transmission and may inspire further research on modelling cost-effective rabies prevention strategies in the Arctic.

引用

页数：16