Libraries 2040: Thinking about the Futures of Libraries with the Scenario Method

This article presents future scenarios for public libraries in Germany in the year 2040 which look at possible futures. Scenarios serve as thinking tools that help to think in alternatives and think ahead. However, they are neither predictions nor forecasts, but consist of plausible assumptions and trends that are combined. The development of the four scenarios follows a multi-stage methodological procedure based on a qualitative survey of trends among the management staff of German libraries. The goal of the scenarios presented here is to stimulate discussion and invite people to broaden their own perspectives by thinking in terms of alternatives.