Long-term outcomes of 5-year survivors without recurrence after the complete resection of non-small cell lung cancer after lobectomy: a landmark analysis in consideration of competing risks

Purpose Among non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC), 5 years is a benchmark in cancer control and treatment, but a certain percentage of cases recur after 5 years. The long-term post-recurrence outcomes remain controversial. To examine the accurate prognostic factors associated with survival and cancer recurrence among 5-year survivors, a landmark analysis that considered competing risks was performed. Methods Complete resection of NSCLC was performed in 2482 patients between January 2003 and December 2015. A total of 1431 patients were 5-year survivors without recurrence. A landmark time analysis was applied to the overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) from 5 years after surgery, and the findings were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The cumulative incidence of cause-specific death and recurrence was estimated using the cumulative incidence function, while carefully considering the competing risks. Results Postoperative recurrence was detected in 732 patients, of whom 68 (9.3%) had recurrence after 5 years. The median follow-up period was 8.2 years. In the competing risk analysis, the independent poor prognostic factors associated with cause-specific death were age >= 75 years, lymph node metastasis and pleural invasion. Conclusions Patients requiring a follow-up for > 5 years were aged >= 75 years and had either lymph node metastasis or pleural invasion.