Prediction model of the risk for lateral local recurrence in locally advanced rectal cancer without enlarged lateral lymph nodes: Lessons from a Japanese multicenter pooled analysis of 812 patients

Aim: Although the oncological impact of lateral lymph node dissection on enlarged lateral lymph nodes has been gradually accepted over the last decade, that on lateral lymph nodes without swelling remains doubtful. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for the future risk of lateral local recurrence and to clarify the value of adding lateral lymph node dissection in locally advanced rectal cancer without enlarged lateral lymph nodes.Methods: This retrospective, multi-institutional study recruited 812 patients with cStage II/III low rectal cancer without enlarged lateral lymph nodes <7 mm. Total lateral local recurrence was a hypothetical value of future risk of lateral local recurrence when lateral lymph node dissection was never performed.Results: Overall, total lateral local recurrences were observed in 67 patients (8.3%). In the multivariate analyses, the strongest risk factor for total local recurrences was no preoperative chemoradiotherapy (odds ratio [OR][95%Cl]: 33.2 [4.56-241.7], P < 0.001), followed by tumor distance =40 mm (OR [95%Cl]: 2.71 [1.51-4.86], P < 0.001) and lateral lymph node 5-7 mm (OR[95%Cl]: 2.38 [1.26-4.48], P = 0.007). In patients with lateral lymph nodes of 5-7 mm, the total lateral recurrence rate was 4.8% after preoperative chemoradiotherapy. Lateral lymph node dissection could reduce from a total lateral local recurrence of 21.6% to an actual lateral local recurrence of 8.0% in patients without preoperative treatment.Conclusion: We introduce a novel prediction model of future risk of lateral local recurrences, which has the potential to enable us to indicate lateral lymph node dissection selectively according to the patients' risks.