Assessment of the impact of climate change on the use of aeration for the storage of cereal grains in the northwest of Tunisia

Grain aeration is an environmentally friendly technique commonly used to preserve the grains of cereals. However, this technique could be disrupted by climate change, due to anomalies of the air temperature and relative humidity, which would impact its effectiveness, especially in hot climate regions, such as northern Tunisia. This study examines the future potential of grain aeration over a 30-year projection period (2041-2070), comparing it with the current state (2015-2020) and focusing on the critical storage period (from July to October) in northwestern Tunisia. To assess the effectiveness of the aeration technique, we used the global climate models CNRM-CM5.1 and ESM2M, in combination with the regional climate model SMHI, considering two projection scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to predict ambient air temperature and relative humidity. The grain aeration simulator AERO was coupled with two process control strategies, AERO2 and the timer controller, to predict grain moisture content, temperature, and suitable aeration times. The results show that the current state, as well as projections based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, allow for safe grain storage with moisture levels between 12% and 13% relative humidity throughout the storage period. However, simulations indicate that climate change could reduce the favorable aeration hours, with an average decrease of 23.44 h compared with the current situation with high variability of suitable hours, reflecting the warming trend and prolonged warm periods. This reduction varies significantly due to global warming and the extended warm period. During the 2645 h of storage, the projection shows an average standard deviation of 34.12 h. However, reality indicates an average standard deviation of less than 1. The impact of climate change will reduce the use of ambient air aeration, necessitating careful short-term and long-term planning. To prevent the deterioration of grain quality during storage, it is essential to incorporate the climate change component into expert grain stock management systems and harness the potential of sunlight for grain preservation through chilling aeration. [GRAPHICS] .