A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks

被引：1
|
作者：
Pircalabelu, Eugen [1 ]
机构：
[1] UCLouvain, Inst Stat Biostat & Actuarial Sci, Voie Roman Pays 20, B-1348 Louvain La Neuve, Belgium
来源：
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES C-APPLIED STATISTICS | 2023年 / 72卷 / 03期
关键词：
COVID-19; reproduction number; spline modelling; time dependency; INTERVENTIONS;
D O I：
10.1093/jrsssc/qlad027
中图分类号：
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号：
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要：
We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak, focusing on the COVID-19 epidemic. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modelling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modelling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number, which is then used to assess the evolution of the epidemic for several countries.
引用
收藏
页码：688 / 702
页数：15
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