The combined effects of high-speed rail and aviation on tourist arrivals in China

Most provincial tourism destinations have both high-speed rail (HSR) and aviation transportation systems; the combined effects of those two modes of transportation on tourist arrivals are likely to vary depending on location. This study examines panel data from 31 provinces in mainland China over a ten-year period (2010-2019) using the Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) model to quantify the combined effects of HSR and aviation on tourist arrivals and their spatiotemporal heterogeneity. The empirical results reveal that: first, HSR and aviation do have a comprehensive impact on tourist arrivals, but the development trends of the two are distinct, with the impact of HSR increasing while the impact of aviation is declining; second, the combined effects of HSR and aviation are clearly spatiotemporally heterogeneous, and their effects on both domestic and inbound tourists exhibit distinct states in various places at various times; third, the GWPR model is an effective tool for determining the combined effects of HSR and aviation on tourist arrivals as well as their regional heterogeneity. This paper not only broadens the research on the combined effects of HSR and aviation from a new perspective and effectively describes the temporal and spatial changes of the combined effect, but it also provides targeted development suggestions for different provincial regions.