Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

被引：9

作者：

Essl, Franz ^{[1
]}

Garcia-Rodriguez, Adrian ^{[1
]}

Lenzner, Bernd ^{[1
]}

Alexander, Jake M. ^{[1
,2
]}

Capinha, Cesar ^{[3
,4
]}

Gauzere, Pierre ^{[5
]}

Guisan, Antoine ^{[6
]}

Kuehn, Ingolf ^{[7
,8
,9
]}

Lenoir, Jonathan ^{[10
]}

Richardson, David M. ^{[11
,12
]}

Rumpf, Sabine B. ^{[13
]}

Svenning, Jens-Christian ^{[14
,15
]}

Thuiller, Wilfried ^{[5
]}

Zurell, Damaris ^{[16
]}

Dullinger, Stefan ^{[17
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Vienna, Dept Bot & Biodivers Res, Div BioInvas Global Change & Macroecol, Rennweg 14, A-1030 Vienna, Austria

[2] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Integrat Biol, Zurich, Switzerland

[3] Univ Lisbon, Inst Geog & Spatial Planning, Ctr Geog Studies, Lisbon, Portugal

[4] Associate Lab TERRA, Lisbon, Portugal

[5] Univ Grenoble Alpes, Univ Savoie Mont Blanc, CNRS, LECA, F-38000 Grenoble, France

[6] Univ Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland

[7] UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Halle, Germany

[8] Martin Luther Univ Halle Wittenberg, Halle, Germany

[9] German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, Leipzig, Germany

[10] Univ Picardie Jules Verne, UMR CNRS 7058, Ecol & Dynam Syst Anthropises EDYSAN, Amiens, France

[11] Stellenbosch Univ, Ctr Invas Biol, Dept Bot & Zool, Stellenbosch, South Africa

[12] Czech Acad Sci, Dept Invas Ecol, Inst Bot, Pruhonice, Czech Republic

[13] Univ Basel, Dept Environm Sci, Basel, Switzerland

[14] Aarhus Univ, Ctr Ecol Dynam Novel Biosphere ECONOVO, Dept Biol, Aarhus, Denmark

[15] Aarhus Univ, Ctr Biodivers Dynam Changing World BIOCHANGE, Aarhus, Denmark

[16] Univ Potsdam, Inst Biochem & Biol, Potsdam, Germany

[17] Univ Vienna, Dept Bot & Biodivers Res, Div Biodivers Dynam & Conservat, Vienna, Austria

来源：

JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY | 2024年 / 51卷 / 01期

基金：

奥地利科学基金会;

关键词：

climate change; climatic debt; colonization credit; extinction debt; invasion debt; mismatch; niche; projection; species distribution models; SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS; PLANT-COMMUNITIES; CLIMATE-CHANGE; DYNAMICS; RANGE; INVASIONS; MICROCLIMATE; BIODIVERSITY; RESPONSES;

D O I：

10.1111/jbi.14726

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.

引用

页码：89 / 102

页数：14

共 102 条

[1] Habitat fragmentation reduces plant progeny quality: a global synthesis [J].