Evolution characteristics, drivers and trends of rural residential land in mountainous economic circle: A case study of Chengdu-Chongqing area, China

Spatial systematic competition definitely contributes to rural residential evolution. Rural residential land of mountainous economic circle is generally hard to govern due to the disturbances from natural factors and economic activities. This study established a framework and adopted Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA), Geographical detector (Geo-detector) and Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) to examine the evolution characteristics, drivers and trends of rural residential land of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle(CCEC). Our research uncovered that: 1) The competitions between rural living space (RLS), rural production space (RPS) and rural ecological space(RES) substantially contribute to the evolution of rural residential land according to the conceptual framework, and the evolution in mountainous economic zone is greatly impacted by the close coupling interaction of macro driving factors and micro farmers' housing selection. 2)The characteristics of rural residential evolution of Chengdu-Chongqing area presents "dense in the west and sparse in the east", and the majority of which are concentrated in Sichuan Basin and Chengdu plain area. 3) Although the size of rural residential land in Chengdu-Chongqing area presents a fluctuant downward trend according to the simulation results, the spatial distribution pattern will remain nearly unchanged in the long run. 4) Rural residential evolution reflects the interactional process of muti-factors, as well as the matching result between man-land relationship and regional development goals under the land use policies. Overall, The theoretical and empirical research form the perspective of spatial competition in this paper provides a new idea for future studies on the evolution of rural residential land.