Intervention analysis of COVID-19 pandemic impact on timber price in selected markets

被引:6
作者
Hlavackova, Petra [1 ]
Banas, Jan [2 ]
Utnik-Banas, Katarzyna [3 ]
机构
[1] Mendel Univ Brno, Fac Forestry & Wood Technol, Dept Forest & Wood Prod Econ & Policy, Zemedelska 3, Brno 61300, Czech Republic
[2] Agr Univ Krakow, Dept Forest Resources Management, Al 29 Listopada 46, PL-31425 Krakow, Poland
[3] Agr Univ Krakow, Dept Management & Econ Enterprises, Al Mickiewicza 21, PL-31120 Krakow, Poland
关键词
COVID-19; pandemic; Intervention analysis; Transfer function; Structura l break; ARIMA; Timber market;
D O I
10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103123
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Using intervention analysis and time series of roundwood prices from ten European and North American countries, we analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the movement of timber prices. The study material consists of forty-six quarterly time series prices of logs and pulp, both softwood and hardwood, covering the period 2005-2022. During the Covid-19 pandemic period (2020:Q1-2020:Q4), softwood log prices mostly underwent declines, with the changes being the largest in Slovakia (-35%), the Czech Republic (-24%) and Austria (-24%), slightly smaller in the United States (-19%), Poland (-17%), Slovenia (-12%) and Germany (- 11%) while no significant price changes were recorded in Finland and Sweden. In Canada and the United States, sharp price declines occurred earlier (2020:Q1 and 2020:Q2, respectively), while in Europe, significant price declines occurred later and lasted longer. In the post-pandemic COVID-19 period, prices increased, but in most cases, the shift was not statistically significant compared to the pre-pandemic period. Softwood pulp prices were subject to much less change, with a significant increase only in Slovakia and Poland. In contrast, no significant changes were observed in the price of both log and pulpwood hardwood during the COVID-19 pandemic.
引用
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页数:10
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