Is a wet-bulb temperature of 35 &LCIRC;C the correct threshold for human survivability?

被引:25
作者
Lu, Yi-Chuan [1 ,2 ]
Romps, David M. [2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Phys, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
[2] Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Climate & Ecosyst Sci Div, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
[3] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Berkeley, CA USA
关键词
heat index; wet-bulb temperature; survivability; UNITED-STATES; CLIMATE EXTREMES; SYSTEM MODEL; HEAT-STRESS; MORTALITY; INDEX; PROJECTIONS; SULTRINESS; RESPONSES; EXPOSURE;
D O I
10.1088/1748-9326/ace83c
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
A wet-bulb temperature of 35 C-& LCIRC; is widely used as the threshold for human survivability, but the wet-bulb temperature is not a particularly accurate metric for human heat stress. For a person in the shade, a more accurate metric is the heat index, which is based on a model of human thermoregulation that accounts for metabolic heat, radiation, respiratory ventilation, and finite wind speeds. The heat index has two critical values: the highest heat index for which a healthy core temperature can be maintained and the highest heat index that is survivable. It is shown here that a wet-bulb temperature of 35 C-& LCIRC; corresponds to conditions between these two critical values. For example, in a world warmer than pre-industrial by 10 C-& LCIRC;, about 30% of the world's population would be exposed once or more per year to a wet-bulb temperature above 35 C-& LCIRC;, but the heat index reveals that less than 2% would be exposed to fatal conditions while over 60% would be exposed to conditions that would cause hyperthermia.
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页数:8
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