Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Land Use and Land Cover, and Small-Scale Forest Expansion in Northwestern Ethiopian Highlands

In the northwestern highlands of Ethiopia, rapid land use land cover (LULC) change and small-scale forest expansion has taken place due to the engagement of small-holder farmers. This study was aimed to understand the trends, magnitudes, drivers of LULC changes, and small-scale forest expansion in three Woredas of the northwestern Ethiopian Highlands, during 1987 to 2020 periods. The study employed a hybrid classification technique to group the images in to LULC classes. Moreover, key informants were used to assess the drivers of LULC change and small-scale forest expansion. The results indicated that small-scale forest increased from 2.5% in 2009 to 19.4% in 2020 in Fagta Lekoma Woredas. An increment of small-scale forest from almost none to 33% was also observed in North Mecha Woredas (1987-2020). Coverage of small-scale forest increased from 0.32% in 2009 to 7.9% in 2020 in Guna Begemidir Woredas. These happened as the expense of cropland and grazing land. Unlike during 1987-2009, cropland showed continuous decline during a period of 2009 and 2020 in all study Woredas. Grasslands significantly diminished by 65.6%, 47.4%, and 40.9% in Fagta Lekoma, North Mecha, and Guna Begemidir Woredas, respectively over the entire study period. In general, the landscapes of the study areas have shown remarkable changes across spatial and temporal differences. The main drivers of the changes in the LULC were associated with the shift of livelihood dependence and demand for various ecosystem services. The LULC changes in the study areas have implications on enhancing forest-based ecosystem services.