The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force, and Productivity

被引：206

作者：

Maestas, Nicole ^{[1
,2
]}

Mullen, Kathleen J. ^{[2
,3
]}

Powell, David ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Harvard Univ, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[3] Univ Oregon, Eugene, OR USA

[4] RAND, Santa Monica, CA USA

来源：

AMERICAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL-MACROECONOMICS | 2023年 / 15卷 / 02期

关键词：

DEMOGRAPHICS; AGE; FUTURE; OUTPUT; YOUNG;

D O I：

10.1257/mac.20190196

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Population aging is expected to slow US economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010. We find that each 10 percent increase in the fraction of the population age 60+ decreased per capita GDP by 5.5 percent. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employ-ment growth; two-thirds due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980-2010. (JELE23, E24, J11, J14, J31, O47)

引用

页码：306 / 332

页数：27

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