Evaluation Factors Affecting on Recurrence, Metastasis, and Survival of Breast Cancer in Iranian Women by Multi-State Model Approach

Background: We used the multistate model to investigate how prognostic factors of breast cancer are seen to affect the disease process.Methods: This cohort study was conducted at Motamed Cancer Institute of Tehran, Iran on 2363 breast cancer patients admitted from 1978 to 2017, and they were followed up until 2018. We applied the multistate models, including four states: diagnosis, recurrence, metastasis, and final absorbing mortality state.Results: Age over 50 years, positive lymph nodes and tumor size intensified the hazard of transition from diagnosis to metastasis (P=0.002, P<0.001 and P=0.001 respectively) and they also intensified the hazard of transition from diagnosis to mortality (P=0.010, P<0.001 and P<0.001 respectively). At the same time, the educational level decreased the hazard of mentioned transitions (P<0.001). Positive estrogen receptors reduced the hazard of transition from diagnosis to metastasis (P=0.007) and positive lymph nodes also intensified the hazard of transition from metastasis to mortality (P=0.040). Tumor size had an increasing role in the transitions from diagnosis to recurrence, recurrence to metastasis, and metastasis to mortality (P=0.014, P=0.018 and P=0.002 respectively).Conclusion: Multistate model presented the detailed effects of prognostic factors on progression of breast cancer. Implementing early diagnosis strategies and providing informational programs, especially in younger ages and lower educational level patients may be helpful in reducing the hazard of transition to higher states of breast cancer and increasing the survival of Iranian women with breast cancer by controlling tumor size growth, lymph nodes involvements and estrogen receptor status.