Development of a sustainable low-carbon footprint for the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area: The efficacy of a TIMES/CGE hybrid framework

With a vibrant economic development, Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) would need to boast low-carbon electricity generation, reduce carbon emissions, and re-structure transportation, yet having no energy management plan. The main objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive framework for analyzing energy impacts and macroeconomic effects of low-carbon scenarios and to identify a sustainable pathway towards 2050 for GKMA. The study uses TIMES/CGE hybrid framework to address the knowledge gap in 4 scenarios. Business as usual is the reference case with Kabejja (20% CO2 abatement), Carbon-Tax (100$/ton), and Lutta (95% CO2 abatement) as alternative scenarios. The analysis shows an increase in consumption from 139.6PJ to 469.35PJ and carbon emissions from 4.6mtns to 7mtns in the reference case. However, consumption and carbon emissions decrease in all the alternative scenarios compared to the reference case. The GDP and equivalent variation (EV) in household welfare increase in all alternative scenarios compared to the reference case. Lutta promises a 60.6% reduction in the carbon emissions intensity of GDP to be realistic. Sustainability is achievable when low-carbon electricity becomes the major contributor to the demand by fuel type, optimization of the total primary energy supply, and construction of an electrified Kampala metro. Transportation, Industrial and Residential sectors are the greatest emitters of CO2 by sector in all scenarios and thus need policy interventions to realize deep CO2 emissions reductions. The study recommends that Lutta guarantee a sustainable low-carbon footprint for GKMA.