Identification of Pre-Emptive Biosecurity Zone Areas for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Based on Machine Learning-Driven Risk Analysis

Simple Summary This research introduces a data-driven method for managing avian influenza in poultry farms, aiming to reduce unnecessary depopulation. By generating specific risk scores for farms, it significantly improves the accuracy of preventive measures against HPAI compared to traditional methods. Tested in Jeollanam-do, this approach reduces false positives, enhancing HPAI management's reliability. The study suggests its potential for targeted farm monitoring, benefiting animal welfare and food security.Abstract Over the last decade, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has severely affected poultry production systems across the globe. In particular, massive pre-emptive depopulation of all poultry within a certain distance has raised concerns regarding animal welfare and food security. Thus, alternative approaches to reducing unnecessary depopulation, such as risk-based depopulation, are highly demanded. This paper proposes a data-driven method to generate a rule table and risk score for each farm to identify preventive measures against HPAI. To evaluate the proposed method, 105 cases of HPAI occurring in a total of 381 farms in Jeollanam-do from 2014 to 2023 were evaluated. The accuracy of preventive measure identification was assessed for each case using both the conventional culling method and the proposed data-driven method. The evaluation showed that the proposed method achieved an accuracy of 84.19%, significantly surpassing the previous 10.37%. The result was attributed to the proposed method reducing the false-positive rate by 83.61% compared with the conventional method, thereby enhancing the reliability of identification. The proposed method is expected to be utilized in selecting farms for monitoring and management of HPAI.