Nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with primary bladder neuroendocrine carcinoma: a population-based study

Tweetable abstractAn accurate and easily accessible prognostic model has been developed for a rare form of bladder cancer, bladder neuroendocrine carcinoma. This model can be used clinically to assess patient risk and to inform the adoption of individualized treatment. Aim: To develop a prognostic model to predict the overall survival of primary bladder neuroendocrine carcinoma (BNEC) patients. Methods: Using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, a nomogram was constructed. Calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic curves and C-index were utilized to evaluate the performance. Results: The study enrolled 906 BNEC patients. The following variables were incorporated in the nomogram: age, marital status, Tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage, chemotherapy and surgery. The nomogram had a C-index of 0.702 in the training cohort and 0.724 in the validation cohort. Conclusion: Compared with the TNM staging system, the proposed nomogram exhibits superior prognostic discrimination and survival prediction. Plain language summaryNeuroendocrine bladder cancer accounts for <1% of all bladder cancers and has a poor prognosis. Due to its rarity, the best treatment still requires further exploration. A total of 906 patients with neuroendocrine bladder cancer were recruited from the SEER database. The three- and five-year survival rates were <40%. Combination therapy results in longer survival compared with a single therapy. Patients are advised to receive comprehensive treatment if their physical condition is tolerable. An accurate, easy-to-understand nomogram to predict overall survival in patients with neuroendocrine bladder cancer was developed. The nomogram will enable clinicians to assess a patient's risk and apply personalized treatment.