Runoff response to multiple land-use changes and climate perturbations

Runoff response to multiple land-use changes and climate perturbations is distinct, and the main influencing factors vary significantly in different regions. However, few have simultaneously considered the effects of multiple land use changes (vegetation cover changes, terraces and check-dams construction, and urban expansion) and climatic perturbations (precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and temperature) on runoff and constructed separate expressions for distinct study areas. This article attempted to determine the main influencing factors of runoff according to the fitting function in the eight subregions of the middle Yellow River (MYR), construct the expressions between the controlling parameter in the Budyko framework and the main factors, and quantify the contribution of climate factors and land use changes to runoff by combining the elasticity coefficient in each subregion. The results indicated that climate factors and land use changes could significantly impact controlling parameters, and there were differences between regions. Climate change promoted an increase in runoff, while land use change promoted its reduction, and the reduction value outweighed its increase. In terms of land use changes, increasing vegetation coverage could suppress runoff reduction, while constructing terraces and check-dams could promote its reduction. The urban expansion benefited runoff collection and, therefore, could suppress runoff reduction. Its absolute contribution rate exceeded 200% in apparent urban expansion areas. In addition, the contribution rates of land use to runoff changes in the northern arid and semi-arid regions were significantly higher than those in the southern, and they were more sensitive to land use changes. The research results can provide a reference for analysing the runoff response to different land-use changes and can further advance people's understanding of the water cycle. Climate change promotes an increase in runoff, while land use change promotes its reduction, and the reduction value outweighs its increase. Increasing vegetation coverage and urban expansion can suppress runoff reduction, while constructing terraces and check-dams can promote reduction. The runoff changes in the arid and semi-arid regions in the northern are more sensitive to land use changes.image