Spatial contagion during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: Some lessons from the case of Madrid, Spain

This paper analyses the magnitude of the spatial transmission of COVID-19 through the municipalities of the region of Madrid during the first pandemic wave using a spatial contagion index. The study also provides additional insights into the main factors contributing to the spread of the virus in both time and space by estimating a novel conditional spatial contagion index. Our results reveal high values of spatial contagion before and during the national lockdown enacted on 15 March 2020, becoming medium/low since then. Furthermore, the study confirms the leading role of inter-municipal mobility and population density in spatial contagion.