Construction of ecological security patterns based on multi-scenario simulations in arid and semi-arid areas in Northwest China

Ecological security patterns (ESPs) have several implications for regional development planning and strategies. However, there have been few studies on potential ESP changes in future scenarios. Considering the various climatic and physical geographical conditions, more studies on the construction of ESPs are needed, particularly in high-altitude, arid, and semi-arid regions. This study fills a gap in the body of literature by simulating future land-use changes under multi-scenario and constructing historical and future ESPs for the Kuqa-Shaya-Xinhe region. This study integrated ecological connectivity and study area data, identified ecological sources, established ecological resistance surfaces, and identified ecological corridors and nodes by combining least-cost paths and circuit theory. Three development scenarios (inertial development scenario, ecological conservation scenario, and coordinated development scenario) were designed. The results showed that an integrated framework is ideal for investigating the spatial and temporal impacts of multi-scenario land-use change on ESPs. Furthermore, under the inertial development scenario, the area of ecological sources decreased significantly and the increased ecological corridor, pinch, and barrier points suggested that a large burden of ecological engineering construction is expected. By contrast, the coordinated development scenario should be preferred in the short and medium term as it can ensure economic growth and infrastructure construction while minimizing the burden of future ecological engineering construction. Our results provide a deeper understanding of the response of ESPs to land-use change and can provide references for the protection and restoration of arid and semi-arid areas.