Two-year changes in body composition and future cardiovascular events: a longitudinal community-based study

Background The risk of cardiovascular diseases has rapidly increased among middle-aged and elderly. However, little is known about the relationship of body composition changes with the risk of cardiovascular events among this population in China. We explored the associations of 2-year changes in fat percentage (fat%) and fat-free mass percentage (FFM%) with subsequent cardiovascular events in a middle-aged and elderly community-based cohort. Methods This study included 1048 participants (456 men [43.51%], aged 50-80 years) without overt cardiovascular disease, who underwent two examinations during 2013-2014 and 2015-2016. All participants were followed up until 2022 for cardiovascular events. A bioelectrical impedance analyzer was used to calculate fat% and FFM% change. Results At baseline, the median body mass index (BMI), fat%, and FFM% were 23.9 (22.1-25.9) kg/m(2), 27.2 (20.8-33.6)%, and 72.8 (66.4-79.2)%, respectively. Two-year changes in fat% and FFM% were 0.31 (-5.53 to 6.87)% and - 0.12 (- 2.36 to 2.06)%. During an average follow-up of 5.5 years, 86 cardiovascular events (8.21%) occurred. Cox regression models showed that hazard ratios (HRs) of every 2% change in fat% and FFM% for cardiovascular events were 1.04 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.07) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.74-0.95), respectively. Compared with participants with stable fat% (-2% <= (sic)fat% < 2%), those with fat% gain >= 2% had an increased risk of cardiovascular events (HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.08-3.97). FFM% loss > 8% was associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events (HR 3.83, 95% CI 1.29-11.4). Conclusions In a middle-aged and elderly community-based Chinese population, fat% gain or FFM% loss was associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events.