Analyzing spatial patterns and driving factors of cropland change in China's National Protected Areas for sustainable management

Farming in protected areas frequently challenges ecological conservation goals while supporting local livelihoods. To balance protection and agriculture, a comprehensive understanding of cropland dynamics in protected areas is of paramount importance. However, studies addressing this trade-off are relatively scarce, especially considering explicit Chinese government regulations on population relocation and cropland retirement in National Protected Areas (NPAs). Our study examined the spatial and temporal pattern of cropland in NPAs and explored the covariance between cropland density and species richness. Concurrently, the driving factors of cropland development in NPAs were analyzed using Multiple Linear Regression. The results indicate that the cropland area in NPAs continued to expand, growing from 1.93 to 2.34 million hectares in 2000-2020, with a cropland density of approximately 0.4. Cropland expansion in the northern NPAs, particularly in the resourcerich Northeast (28.12 %) and the Northwest with high marginal agricultural returns (38.26 %), have encroached upon species habitats and aggravated biodiversity loss. Moreover, cities with higher cropland densities in NPAs are usually located at borders, possibly due to decentralized management. The Multiple Linear Regression results show that high cropland density is usually associated with a high population density (beta = 0.156) and lower levels of rural education (beta = -0.101) and income (beta = -0.122). To mitigate the issue of cropland development in NPAs, it is crucial to avoid one-size-fits-all management strategies, strengthen regional legal supervision, adjust fiscal incentives, and promote eco-friendly agriculture. In the north regions, the expansion of cropland in NPAs should be strictly controlled. For the southwest, the positive role of preserving cropland in NPAs for alleviating human-nature conflict and maintaining social stability should be emphasized. This study provides research support for China's exploration of geographically suitable strategies for controlling cropland in NPAs. Moreover, the findings could serve as a reference for the governance of NPAs in other countries.