Analysing wind power ramp events and improving very short-term wind power predictions by including wind speed observations

被引:5
|
作者
Lochmann, Moritz [1 ,4 ]
Kalesse-Los, Heike [1 ]
Schaefer, Michael [1 ]
Heinrich, Ingrid [2 ]
Leinweber, Ronny [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Leipzig, Leipzig Inst Meteorol, Leipzig, Germany
[2] LEM Software, Leipzig, Germany
[3] Deutsch Wetterdienst, Lindenberg, Germany
[4] Leipziger Inst Meteorol, Stephanstr 3, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany
关键词
lidar observations; minute-scale forecast; nacelle observations; ramp events; remote sensing; wind farm predictions; WEATHER; MODELS;
D O I
10.1002/we.2816
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要
Though wind power predictions have been consistently improved in the last decade, persistent reasons for remaining uncertainties are sudden large changes in wind speed, so-called ramps. Here, we analyse the occurrence of ramp events in a wind farm in Eastern Germany and the performance of a wind power prediction tool in forecasting these events for forecasting horizons of 15 and 30 min. Results on the seasonality of ramp events and their diurnal cycle are presented for multiple ramp definition thresholds. Ramps were found to be most frequent in March and April and least frequent in November and December. For the analysis, the wind power prediction tool is fed by different wind velocity forecast products, for example, numerical weather prediction (NWP) model and measurement data. It is shown that including observational wind speed data for very short-term wind power forecasts improves the performance of the power prediction tool compared to the NWP reference, both in terms of ramp detection and in decreasing the mean absolute error between predicted and generated wind power. This improvement is enhanced during ramp events, highlighting the importance of wind observations for very short-term wind power prediction.
引用
收藏
页码:573 / 588
页数:16
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