Geometric morphometrics and machine learning from three-dimensional facial scans for difficult mask ventilation prediction

Background Unanticipated difficult mask ventilation (DMV) is a potentially life-threatening event in anesthesia. Nevertheless, predicting DMV currently remains a challenge. This study aimed to verify whether three dimensional (3D) facial scans could predict DMV in patients scheduled for general anesthesia.Methods The 3D facial scans were taken on 669 adult patients scheduled for elective surgery under general anesthesia. Clinical variables currently used as predictors of DMV were also collected. The DMV was defined as the inability to provide adequate and stable ventilation. Spatially dense landmarks were digitized on 3D scans to describe sufficient details for facial features and then processed by 3D geometric morphometrics. Ten different machine learning (ML) algorithms, varying from simple to more advanced, were introduced. The performance of ML models for DMV prediction was compared with that of the DIFFMASK score. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) with its 95% confidence interval (95% CI) as well as the specificity and sensitivity were used to evaluate the predictive value of the model.Results The incidence of DMV was 35/669 (5.23%). The logistic regression (LR) model performed best among the 10 ML models. The AUC of the LR model was 0.825 (95% CI, 0.765-0.885). The sensitivity and specificity of the model were 0.829 (95% CI, 0.629-0.914) and 0.733 (95% CI, 0.532-0.819), respectively. The LR model demonstrated better predictive performance than the DIFFMASK score, which obtained an AUC of 0.785 (95% CI, 0.710-0.860) and a sensitivity of 0.686 (95% CI, 0.578-0.847). Notably, we identified a significant morphological difference in the mandibular region between the DMV group and the easy mask ventilation group.Conclusion Our study indicated a distinct morphological difference in the mandibular region between the DMV group and the easy mask ventilation group. 3D geometric morphometrics with ML could be a rapid, efficient, and non-invasive tool for DMV prediction to improve anesthesia safety.