First-order approximation towards empirical seismic vulnerability assessment of low-cost unreinforced masonry buildings in South Africa

The 5 August 2014 Orkney earthquake in South Africa caused significant damage to low-cost unreinforced masonry buildings. After the earthquake, post-earthquake surveys were conducted to assess damage and deduce the intensity experienced by these buildings. During these surveys, only buildings that were reported as damaged were investigated. This study conducted an empirical seismic vulnerability assessment using data collected from those surveys. However, for a comprehensive assessment, the data should include all buildings in the study area. Hence in this study, a first-order approximation was applied to gather sufficient data to construct fragility curves for low-cost unreinforced masonry buildings in South Africa. The damage probability matrix technique was used for fragility curve construction. The fragility curves were constructed using the intensity and damage data, statistical models, and model fitting techniques. The fragility curves obtained in this study predicted comparable but slightly lower damage compared to other curves for unreinforced masonry buildings of similar typology. Although the method applied was able to produce fragility curves comparable with other studies, it is recommended that in order to get a reliable fragility curves all the buildings in the study area should be investigated including those that suffered little to no damage.