Machine Learning and Texture Analysis of [18F]FDG PET/CT Images for the Prediction of Distant Metastases in Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients

The aim of our study was to predict the occurrence of distant metastases in non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients using machine learning methods and texture analysis of F-18-labeled 2-deoxy-d-glucose Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography {[F-18]FDG PET/CT} images. In this retrospective and single-center study, we evaluated 79 patients with advanced NSCLC who had undergone [F-18]FDG PET/CT scan at diagnosis before any therapy. Patients were divided into two independent training (n = 44) and final testing (n = 35) cohorts. Texture features of primary tumors and lymph node metastases were extracted from [F-18]FDG PET/CT images using the LIFEx program. Six machine learning methods were applied to the training dataset using the entire panel of features. Dedicated selection methods were used to generate different combinations of five features. The performance of selected machine learning methods applied to the different combinations of features was determined using accuracy, the confusion matrix, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and area under the curve (AUC). A total of 104 and 78 lesions were analyzed in the training and final testing cohorts, respectively. The support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree methods showed the highest accuracy in the training cohort. Seven combinations of five features were obtained and introduced in the models and subsequently applied to the training and final testing cohorts using the SVM and decision tree. The accuracy and the AUC of the decision tree method were higher than those obtained with the SVM in the final testing cohort. The best combination of features included shape sphericity, gray level run length matrix_run length non-uniformity (GLRLM_RLNU), Total Lesion Glycolysis (TLG), Metabolic Tumor Volume (MTV), and shape compacity. The combination of these features with the decision tree method could predict the occurrence of distant metastases with an accuracy of 74.4% and an AUC of 0.63 in NSCLC patients.