Interactions among rainfall, fire, forbs and non-native grasses predict occupancy dynamics for the endangered Pacific pocket mouse (Perognathus longimembris pacificus) in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem

It is important to understand species-habitat relationships to implement effective adaptive management for rare species. However, it can be challenging to assess habitat associations and their relationships to abiotic stressors in dynamic habitats without the insights that can be gained from long-term monitoring. We report results from the first six years of extensive track tube monitoring of the largest two of three remaining extant populations of federally endangered Pacific pocket mouse (Perognathus longimembris pacificus) in a coastal Mediterranean-type ecosystem on Marine Corps Base, Camp Pendleton in southern California, USA. We used dynamic occupancy and structural equation modeling to assess potential drivers of population trends that included habitat, fire history, rainfall, disturbance, and the presence of other small mammals. We found that the variables that best predicted mouse occupancy were moderate to high forb and perennial herb cover (40-80%), and moderate to high open ground (20-70%) and low non-native grass cover (<20%), Non-native grass cover (>20%) was also a strong predictor of lower PPM colonization and increased extinction probabilities, with the extent of non-native grass cover being strongly influenced by annual rainfall and recency of fire. Our study adds to the growing literature on effects of invasive annual grasses on native species in Mediterranean-type ecosystems. We suggest that habitat management could be based upon promotion of open forb and perennial herb dominated habitats with reduction of non-native grasses by prescribed fire and other methods. These types of spatial and temporal monitoring programs can support land managers by creating a monitoring and management feedback loop. They can reveal landscape and environmental variables associated with species persistence, inform habitat management goals, and help managers to assess the success of management actions on populations of conservation concern.