Improving the model robustness of flood hazard mapping based on hyperparameter optimization of random forest

Traditional machine learning algorithms face challenges in assessing flood susceptibility reliably due to their low robustness and the inherent 'black-box' nature. This paper utilizes five hyperparameter optimization algoirthms (HPO), namely grid search (GS), random search (RS), gauss process (GP), tree-structured parzen estimator (TPE) and simulated annealing (SA), to tune the traditional random forest's (RF) hyperparameters to improve the robustness of flood hazard mapping (FHM) models at Ningxiang City Hunan Province, China. Additionally, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) method were used to interpret the decision-mechanisms of these flood hazard models. This study considers 19 pluvial flood influencing factors and 2064 flood locations to create a geospatial database. The performance of each hybrid model was evaluated by area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and several validation methods. The results demonstrate that the developed hybrid models demonstrated good performance, with RF-TPE achieving the highest AUC (0.9660), followed by RF-GP (0.9648), RF-SA (0.9624), RF-GS (0.9612), RF-RS (0.9600), and RF (0.9539). The RF-TPE model exhibits superior robustness than other models, and the FHM constructed using it is more reliable. HPO is an effective approach to improve the predictive accuracy and robustness of FHM models. When considering limited computational resources, Bayesian optimization (TPE) should be prioritized for optimizing FHM models, followed by metaheuristic algorithms and model-free algorithms. Moreover, the study revealed that distance from river, peak rainfall intensity, continuous rainfall, antecedent effective rainfall, and terrain relief, are the most significant for pluvial FHM modeling in this region.