Assessment of Projected Climate Change Impact on Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) Production with Coping Strategies at Jamma Wereda, Ethiopia

Ethiopia is the major wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) producer country in Africa in terms of total area coverage and total production. But, wheat productivity in Ethiopia is low as compared to the genetic potential of the crop mainly due to climate change and climate variability. Studies that focus on impact of climate change on wheat productivity have paramount importance in Ethiopia, where limited adaptive strategies have been available. This study was conducted at Jamma located in the northeastern part of Ethiopia with the objectives to (1) calibrate and evaluate the CERES (Crop-Environment-Resource-Synthesis) wheat model in DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) model for simulating phenology and yield of wheat crop (2) assess impact of projected climate change on wheat crop (3) explore management measures for wheat crop. Model calibration was performed using phenology and yield data. Daily climate data for the period (1980-2009) and future climate data for 2030s (2020-2049) and 2050s (2040-2069) were used for impact and management scenarios analysis. Baseline climate data (Model calibration revealed that root mean square error (RMSE) for anthesis, physiological maturity, grain yield, and biomass yield were 2 days, 3 days, 399 kg ha(-1), 895 kg ha(-1)and 0.3, respectively. The RMSE during the model evaluation were 2 days, 4 days, 139 kg ha(-1) and 526 kg ha(-1) for the respective parameters indicated the genetic coefficients were properly calibrated. Simulation under carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization showed that wheat grain yield may slightly increase in 2030s and in 2050s under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios. The simulation result without CO2 fertilization showed that grain yield may decrease in 2030s and 2050s under both RCPs. The use of long maturing cultivars under late sowing may help to significantly increase grain yield. In conclusion, projected climate change may affect wheat production adversely, but impact may be reduced using suitable crop management measures.