SPATIAL EXTENSION OF 3PGMIX TO PREDICT POST-FIRE FOREST REGROWTH AND RESPONSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGH SEVERITY BURNED AREA

Predicting the dynamic process of post-fire regrowth is critical for understanding the specific forest succession trajectory. 3-PGmix model (i.e., Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth for mixed stands) has been reported as a powerful tool for predicting the growth of mixed forest species. However, the prediction of post-fire forest productivity at a regional scale is infrequently documented and not well understood. In this study, we used remote sensing vegetation parameters to retrieve a series of site-specific parameters for driving the 3PGmix model to simulate the spatial-scale dynamics of post-fire vegetation net primary production (NPP) recovery and predict the response of NPP under different future climate conditions. The result indicated that the extended 3PGmix model can accurately simulate the post-fire dynamic of NPP at spatial scales and the predictions are consistent well with the LAI estimated NPP based on the 3PGS model. A higher fertility rating (FR) was predicted to accelerate the process of post-fire forest successional and shorten the duration time when the species proportion achieves balance and Climate change promoted the increase of NPP in the sequence of RCP 8.5 > RCP 4.5 > current climate.